[TriEmbed] Intellectual and technical debt and machine learning cautionary article

[Pete Soper]

Hi John,
     I'm still digesting and cogitating about this posting of yours. 
I've been trying to catch up on psychology and neuroscience for the past 
year or two, mostly for personal reasons, and am struck by the fact that 
if you take Eagleman's book /Incognito/ and Kahneman's book /Thinking 
Fast and Slow/ and boil them down it's possible to get a perspective 
about just how little magic is left in the way people actually behave 
(vs the way we think we behave). That's not to say artificial abstract 
reasoning is around the corner or to minimize what a vast gap there is 
between any existing (i.e. domain-specific) AI and a person. Just saying 
the nature of the lego blocks and simple collections of blocks seems to 
be coming into focus.
     And here's another submission for my guess that AI is sneaking up 
on us in plain sight, albeit with more and more intellectual debt being 
accrued:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2214731-robot-pilot-that-can-grab-the-flight-controls-gets-its-plane-licence/

-Pete

On 7/29/19 11:08 AM, John Vaughters via TriEmbed wrote:
> What we (Society) call Machine Learning, I call weighted big data with 
> Artificial Stupidity. Yes the machine is learning, NO it is not 
> intelligent. Quite the opposite. In fact, it reminds me of the old 
> Sesame Street game, One of these does not belong with the other. Smart 
> comparisons based on big data inputs with massive processing. The 
> current Machine Learning will be useful as a tool, similar to a 
> ratchet wrench is to a car. It will help us for specific tasks, but 
> not all tasks. Ever try to use a ratchet wrench as a hammer, right, 
> well it does work, but can give very bad results. That is experience 
> talking :)
>
> I've seen at least two articles from people in the industry stating we 
> are headed in the wrong direction on AI. One software and one 
> hardware. The software person used the same term I always use, 
> Artificial Stupidity. He felt that we had to re-think the entire 
> approach, but did not offer one. The point being he just flat out 
> believed smart weighted comparisons are not the answer. A tool yes, 
> but it will not lead to intelligence. The Hardware guy was somehow 
> connected to Intel and believed the heavy processing was not the 
> answer and instead of high electrical power with high processing power 
> is not the solution. They were looking at low power processing with 
> fast small calculations in massive parallel. Think video card cores. 
> These articles were pie in the sky thoughts, so no idea if they went 
> anywhere. All this tells me is what I have been saying for a long 
> time, we have no clue what intelligence is or how to create it. What 
> we keep doing is taking shots in the dark and extracting a little 
> light to take new aim with another shot. Each shot provides great 
> amazing tools. Object Oriented Programming came from one of those 
> shots. I don't know about you, but that was a pretty amazing concept 
> that lead to incredible advances in usable software. More tools are 
> coming that will blow our minds, but it still will not be intelligent.
>
> Machine Learning is so complex and very unreliable, because when it 
> fails, it can be quite spectacular. The worse part is the creators 
> have no idea why it failed, because they cannot evaluate the neural 
> network. This is a real Frankenstein. Enough knowledge to build it but 
> not able to understand or control it. The phase we are in right now is 
> to build software to help evaluate what the neural nets are doing and 
> it is a massive task.
>
> I have always criticized Elon Musk for being afraid of AI, but I have 
> backed down on him a bit. Because, if we allow some of this technology 
> to run our world, the fear is not that it will take over, but it will 
> fail and fail big. I have no idea why Elon Musk is afraid of AI, but I 
> do now see a very real issue where people think their software is 
> great and apply it in situations that can cause massive problems. For 
> instance, imagine AI implemented in an electric grid. SCARY! Ummmm 
> Weapons decisions. YIKES! Sadly, I have found out both of these are 
> being looked at, hence my fear level has raised, but not due to Sky 
> Net domination, Due to Human Stupidity allowing Artificial Stupidity 
> to be misused.
>
> 2 cents worth a half pence on a good day
>
> John Vaughters
>
> On Monday, July 29, 2019, 10:08:42 AM EDT, Brian via TriEmbed 
> <triembed at triembed.org> wrote:
>
>
> On 7/27/19 5:07 PM, Mark Sidell via TriEmbed wrote:
> > Favorite pick-up line: You look like a thing and I love you.
>
> Best.  Pick-up.  Line.  EVAR.
>
> I may have to try this one.
>
> -B
>
>
>
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